← CoreTCG Distorted Reflection (DTR) Regional Championship
Water Crux MageTier 2
at CoreTCG Distorted Reflection (DTR) Regional Championship
decks
3
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
6-7-0
overall winrate
46.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.0%
avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
52.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1350
· median 1310
· range 1179–1561
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1179
Q3 1387
1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 12.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -22.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Genbu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
